By Bill Finley
When the TDN staff decided to make Patch Adams (Into Mischief) and Chasten (Into Mischief) 'TDN Rising Stars' after their maiden wins Saturday at Churchill Downs history was made by trainer Brad Cox. Never before has a trainer had two Rising Stars on the same day. Both were obvious choices. Patch Adams ran away from his competition to win by 10 lengths. Chasten, a winner by 1 ½ lengths, wasn't quite as impressive, but that she is half-sister to 2023 Older Filly & Mare Champion Idiomatic (Curlin) obviously swayed the TDN team.
A horse is made a TDN Rising Star when he or she wins one of their first few starts, and is impressive enough that the TDN staff believes the horse will go on to be as graded stakes winner. Does that mean that Patch Adams and Chasten are both destined to become stars? Not necessarily. Basing a horses future off what is usually no more than one or two starts, is not easy. There are plenty of horses like Arrogate (Unbridled's Song). He lost in his first start and then ran in, and won, a pair of allowance races. He didn't have his coming out party until winning the 2016 GI Travers S. in his fifth lifetime start. Then there are horses like Pastor T (Into Mischief), who never ran again after breaking his maiden in his debut for Bob Baffert.
I am not among the group that selects Rising Stars. But my colleagues continue to do a good job finding the stars of tomorrow. I did a complete review of every North American-based horse that received a Rising Star in 2023. Here is what I found:
(*) There were 52 North American-based Rising Stars in 2023. Twenty of the 52 have so far won a graded stakes race in their career. An even more impressive stat: 12 horse became Grade I winners. If you include non-graded stakes, 26 Rising Stars have won stakes races.
(*) Not too many future stars escaped the team. Carl Spackler (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}): Sierra Leone (Gun Runner); Fierceness (City of Light); Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna); and Leslie's Rose (Into Mischief) were among the top horses tabbed.
(*) Soon to be named Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna was the best Rising Star of 2023. The worst? Squire Creek (Uncle Mo) was last seen running in a $32,000 claimer at Aqueduct. Hey, nobody is perfect.
(*) To the surprise of no one, Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) led all sires in 2023 when it comes to producing Rising Stars. He had five. Tapit (Pulpit), Gun Runner (Candy Ride (ARG) and Quality Road (Elusive Quality) were next with three each.
(*) Surprise, surprise, the super trainers dominated. Todd Pletcher led all trainers with eight Rising Stars. Brad Cox and Bob Baffert were next with six each.
The Cigar Mile Comes Up Strong
After a few years in a row where the Cigar Mile field came up very light, it's good to see the race, which will be run Saturday at Aqueduct, rebound. In what should be a terrific betting race, 11 will go to the post in what is the last race that matters on the 2024 New York racing calendar. The pick here is 'TDN Rising Star' Locked (Gun Runner). The winner of last year's GI Breeders' Futurity, he was sidelined for nearly a year after finishing third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He came back and romped in an Oct. 19 race at Aqueduct going seven furlongs, which should set him up perfectly for the $500,000 race. But don't rule out the Jersey-bred sensation Book 'em Danno, who had a tough trip when second in the GIII Perryville S. at Keeneland. For him, this will be a trial for the GI Saudi Cup.
Guessing Games With Takeouts
Why is the takeout information for each track so hard to find? Asking people to bet when they don't know what the takeout is would be like your local supermarket not telling you the price of eggs. You'll just have to guess. This is an easy problem to fix, and maybe HISA can help in the effort. There should be a website readily available to fans that lists all the takeouts on all the bets at every track. The Daily Racing Form and Equibase should also publish the takeout rates in their paper and programs. Price conscious fans should gravitate to the tracks that give them best deal, but no one is out there making that information readily available.
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